Millest Äripäev ei kirjuta, ent mis mind huvitaks.
Esiteks, üksteise järel on läinud praeguses finantskriisis kaduva teed suured Lääne investeerimispangad. Kuidas läheb Eesti investeerimispankadel? Näiteks Gildil, Altal, Trigonil, Evlil, LHVl. Kas nad on osanud nii majandada, et suplevad praegu rahas. Või on neil "põnev", "saneerivad", nagu Q-Vara poisid.
Teiseks, tahaks lugeda, kuidas tulevad praeguse konjunktuuriga toime kaubandusettevõtted. Nii nagu 10 aasta taguse kriisi ajal, on Stockmann rahvast tühi, samuti teised kaubanduskeskused. Samas on boksi üür kaubanduskeskustes 100 000 krooni kuus, ja praegu on päevi, kus seda boksi ei külasta ükski klient, ostudest rääkimata.
6 kommentaari:
1.Eilses kukus kell 11,selles saates kus kaubanduskoja omad üle moka otsa rääkisid Hiinast(valetasid sunnikud,sest hiina sadamaga on lepped tehtud,loe Delfist Eesti sadamad loodavad hiina peale 5.okt.07)
2.Kuku omadele tahan öelda,et ärimehed ja nende tallaalused poliitikud ja korrumpeerunud ministrid ajavad suust välja sama juttu kui:
1.Vabariigi algul sutenöörid rääkisid,et neil pole mingit äi,raha ei tule,samas see oli kõigile teada,et nood sunnikud ajasid kokku kõva pappi...
2.Paljud ärimehed registreerusid tööturul töötuteks lleks,et mitte maksta makse,väitsid,et nad on töötud aga ise ajasid kokku kõva pappi...
3.Nüüd käib sama asi,sõimatakse venemaad,õhutatakse vihavaenu ja aetakse sõjapropagandat venemaa suunas aga ise samal ajal ajavad venemaaga kõva äri lükkavad kokku mega kasumeid- 740 miljonit USD käivet on ikka kõva raha,kõik see raha tuleb hiinast...egas muidu poleks tohutud järjekorrad vene piiril...
Tervitab,
Pärisorjastamise ennetustöö
Hmm, ei oska teemat kommenteerida, kuid:
Eesti kaupluste rendihinnad on ikka kreisid, kuna näitena yhe Soome disaini lipulaeva poerent Hispaania Barcelonas lähedal on vaid 1500 eurot kuus. Leidke tootlusel 3 erinevust - "turukaup" kaubanduskeskuses ja 10 000.- eeku kuus vöi disainerkaup butiigis (kesklinnas, muide) ja 1500.- eurot.
I think there are 2 reasons Äripäev isn't writing about the financial institutions here.
The first is that their journalists simply aren't finance experts, and don't understand the situation well enough. Do they really understand what it means if the EEK-EUR short-term spread is 150 basis points?
The second reason is that these companies are private and not releasing information. Remember that the finance industry is typically full of BSDs (big swinging dicks), in other words people with huge egos who think they can do no wrong.
The reality is this: They are facing pretty big cash crunches and the ones who run funds had some huge redemptions. There's a reason, for example, that Trigon halted redemptions a few weeks ago. The situation is the same at Gild.
The one to watch I think is Avaron. Like the other guys, their funds are way down this year, but they also have less capital to work with so they may face some real trouble.
On the i-banking side, no one can get any bond issues subscribed, and M&A activity is down to almost nothing. Look for layoffs on that side of the sector.
On to retail. BIG (err.. BIGBANK) is in pretty serious trouble. Read their latest financial report and you can see that they have > 40% of loans that are more than 180 days past due. They should write these off more aggressively, but they know this is going to affect their balance sheet. They are offering 9% on short-term deposits, and I heard their private capital (bonds) are paying 15% or higher. The thing that is bad if BIG goes under is that the Estonian taxpayer will get stuck with the bailout since they are a "bank" and the deposits are guaranteed up to 50,000 EUR.
Selle eest kirjutab Daily Irish Mail.
Lenihan deserves his place among the olives and goats politicians.
The Mary Ellen Synon Column.
Yes,almost anything is possible now:our banking system and our national finances are being run by a man whom the Financial Times ranks as the second-worst finance minister in Europe.(Huvitav,keda ta peab esimeseks,kas Padarit?)
And if you think you can find comfort in the fact that at least Brian Lenihan is not the worst-that´s reckoned to be
Fernando Teixeira dos Santos of Portugal-you should notice just where ten years of Fianna Fail governments have left the ranking of Ireland´s minister: bang between the olives-and-goats politicians of Portugal and Spain,whose finance minister,
Pedro Solbes,is ranked third worst.
We aren´t in any heart of Europe;
we are down and failing with Club Med.
So keep that in mind this week as you watch Mr Lenihan thrashing around trying to find some way to recapitalise our banks without actually having to find any money to dod the recapitalising.
He is of course acting very surprised that it has come to this.Mr Lenihan thought his trick seven weeks ago to guarantee almost all deposits and almost all the liabilities of our six of our banks and building societies-while claiming there was no risk to the taxpayer in any of it-would be enough to support our banking system and get credit moving again.
It was never going to happen.On October 16,I wrote that the Government was going to have to find the billions to recapitalise the banks.The problem was insolvency,I said,not just liquidity,which was the only thing the minister´s bank guarantee claimed to address.
WORTHLESS
But he just did not get it. So let´s just go back and sheck the details of that Financial Times ranking.On a scale of one to 19 with one equalling´best,´the FT gives Mr Lenihan 18 for economic skill.
That sounds about right.On an international scale with one at the top and 19 at the bottom,our finance minister is an 18.
God save Ireland,or at least,god get Richard Bruton into the Finance Department,and quickly.Fine Gael have still never figured out what principes ought to drive their party,but at least they have a finance spokesman,Richard Bruton,who has a grasp of ecenomics better than second-worst-in-Europe.
Yesterday on this page,Mr Bruton had it right:´The current state of the banks is going to make each one of them act like petrified hedgehogs curled up in a ball with spikes out.They can survive like that indefinitely on their current capital until the dying economy takes them drown with it.´
The bit about the banks being curled up in a ball is the part the Taoiseach left out yesterday when he assured the Dail that our banks have enough capital.
The definition of´enough capital´for the Taoiseach appears to be that the banks have enough to go on breathing for some time yet-just don´t expect any of them to make busy keeping their cash sealed up for their own
life-support.
Jätkub...
Which is why,as Mr Bruton says:´International financial markets have looked at the Irish banks and decided that without recapitalisation,they are next to worthless.
And even those within the financial markets who might be persuaded to take a punt on them are dissuaded by the threat/promise of
re-capitalisation devaluing any shares they might buy.´
A bank with a near-worthless share price is not going to be lending anything to anybody.
What our banks need is billions pumped in,and right now.
But our Minister for Deficits doesn´t have billions.He might try to borrow them,but he will be going out into a credit-crunched
financial market that is seeting with governments trying to borrow money.Worse,look at what the markets already think of Irish Government debt.
There is something called ´bond spreads´. It shows the difference in yield between two bonds with a different credit rating.It shows the higher yield which can be earned from a government bond with a higher risk of default.
European bond spreads are often compared with Germany,a low-risk country.At the moment,two countries,Greece and Italy,have a bond spread over Germany around alarming 100 basis points-meaning investors do not consider Greece and Italy anywhere near as safe a risk as Germany;so much for the alleged stability of ecomnomic and monetary union.
Ireland and its debt,judging by spreads,are not far behind Greece and Italy in terms of risk.That means our Government has to pay investors an extra risk premium to get them to lend us money:which is what happens when you are an
olives-and-goats country.
Jätkub...
So if Mr Lenihan decides he is going to have to borrow billions
to recapitalise our banks,it is going to be extra-expensive,in a market that is
extra-difficult:small European countries are not where big investors now want to risk their dosh.
This idea of borrowing to recapitalise the banks has gained a new wrinkle just in the last day.David McWilliams,an economist who is said to have influenced the finance minister over bank guarantees,now says the Government should try´to co-opt some of our smaller neighbours who are having problems raising government bonds into a Europena EMU bond.´He wants the combined euro region to issue debt together rather than as individual states.
In other words,to try to hide the risk in the debt from the investors who are putting up the money.Wall street has already tried this with a ´financial instruments´such as the form of securitisation called CDOs-collateralised debt obligations.
That means a whole lot of depts with different levels of risk are bundled up into one big debt and sold on.Which is of course what set off the current global financial crash.All sorts of toxic debts were bundled up with OK mortgages and sold off as securities.No one to this day knows where all the toxic depts are and who is holding them.
Somehow Mr Lenihan´s apparent advisor,Mr McWilliams,thinks we should go around again with this
hide-the-poisoned-meat-in-the-sausages- kind of money-market behaviour.I think not.As long as national debt stays tied to a particular nation,investors have a fair shot at evaluating the risk. Trying to hide wobbly Greek or Irish debt in with less risky Dutch debt is not wise.
Mr Lenihan may of course decide not to borrow the billions at all.He may decide to raid the National Pension Fund instead.
Yet that money will still have to be paid back with interest-or there are people working now who will find the pension cupboard is bare when they go to look for a State pension when they retire.
No stack of money can be spent forever.
The Fianna Fail governments wasted our growth of the 1990s and poisoned it with the asset bubble of the Ahern-Cowen years.They can as easily waste our pension fund in banks that might ultimately collapse.
WOUNDED
Last,there are the unidentified´overseas investors´
Mr Lenihan claimed yesterday have approached the Government about injecting fresh capital into Irish banks.
Overseas investors may well have approached him.But then,any ovesrseas investors who still have billions to invest are smart enough to smell the spilt blood of a wounded government from
half-way around the globe.This is the biggest buyers´market of modern times.Mr Lenihan and the rest of the Government are desperate for money to go into the banks so that credit can come out.Our businesses,especially our small and medium sized businesses,are gasping for credit.
Any overseas investor coming in to help Government out of this mess is going to be able to cut a sweet deal. If in the next days the Taoiseach or the minister announces some overseas billionaire investor group coming in for the Irish banks,wait and read for the fine print:because whoever puts the money gets shares,and on his own terms.
Or more exactly,whoever puts in the money gets the banks,and on his own terms.
m.synon@dailymail.ie
Thursday,Nov,20,2008
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