Veel uurivat ajaloo-ajakirjandust: 1939. aasta suvel paistis kõik veel ilus!

Siin üks artikkel Londoni ajalehest The Times:

The Times |  June 9, 1939
From Our Warsaw Correspondent
BALTIC STATES AND PEACE A WELL-BALANCED NEUTRALITY THE GERMAN PACTS
Latvia and Estonia have reached a useful compromise with Germany in signing their pacts of non-aggression. The German Government required two separate bilateral pacts, but it was eventually agreed that the texts should be identical and signed simultaneously. The two Baltic States, therefore, have given the Reich two new bilateral agreements without them- selves departing from the cherished principle of solidarity in an independent outlook on the world. Born together during the disintegration of Russia 20 years ago, Latvia and Estonia fought side by side for the right to live. In the earliest days their forces were often curiously intermingled: Estonians fought on Latvian soil. and the present Foreign Minister of Latvia was among those of his nation who fought for a time in the army of Estonia against the common enemy. Estonia is slightly the senior of these twin republics. Great Britain recognized her de facto existence on May 3, 1918, and did the same for Latvia ill the following November. Complicated fighting, however, continued for another two years, now against invading Reds, now against remnants of the old German Army -for the Germans had occupied a great part of the Baltic States, and the Kaiser had personally come to Riga. Soviet Russia signed peace with Estonia on February 2, 1920, and with Latvia on August 11. Apart from Brest Litovsk, these were the first peace treaties of the Soviet Government. They have remained the basis of relations ever since. The independence and frontiers then officially recognized have never been threatened, and a few attempts at internal Communist revolt have been frustrated with ease. By the early thirties both Republics were growing tired of their Parliamentary system. which in the hands of inexperienced leaders of many parties had lost its initial inspiration and was developing unhealthy centers of endless debate and bargaining, which not merely deprived the Governments of stability and singleness of purpose but even threatened- the Republics with serious internal strife. In both countries the leaders of the original struggle for independence resolutely took the lead again. After years of strenuous reorganization and reform they have produced their own systems of legislation and administration, different in the two Republics, and different in many respects from the systems of other' countries, but containing Parliamentary elements as well as some of a moderate authoritarian character. NO ENEMIES: Latvia and Estonia appear to have no enemy in the world; they are certainly themselves enemies to none, being concerned only with developing their own meager natural resources, sending their fishing and merchant ships out on the high seas, and fostering peaceful inter- course with and among their neighbors. The last concern is the most important, being the vital condition of the two countries' existence. June December, 1936, The Times described them as lying on the axis of European peace, forming with Poland and Rumania the barrier between Germany and Russia. The conscious- ness of this has been ever present in the minds of Baltic statesmen. It has always dictated their foreign policy, which is to have good neighborly relations with Russia and Germany, giving neither any advantage which might reasonably annoy the other. Even in the early years, when Germany appeared to be more distant from the Baltic States than she is to- day, no 'exclusive advantages were given to Russia. Experiments were made to establish closer economic relations, but no political entanglements were at any time considered. Last year the two countries declared their strict neutrality. This would give them their one chance, small as it might be, in case of war. Voluntarily to side with Germany has never been seriously considered, for that would precipitate the forces of Russia towards the coast and the Baltic countries would inevitably become a battlefield and be destroyed, whichever way might go the fortunes of war. To side with Russia would mean admitting Russian forces to help defend the coastline, with its valuable seaports of Tallinn, Riga, Ventspils, and Liepaja, with the risk of being absorbed in Russia. But when Germany proposed to conclude non-aggression pacts there was little or no hesitation. They might have some protective value, and could not reasonably do any harm, whereas to refuse would inevitably provoke the charge of siding with Russia. Several pacts of similar character had already been concluded with Russia, and this additional one with Germany would be, theoretically at least, an additional insurance of neutrality. THE RUSSIAN PROPOSAL The Soviet proposal to guarantee assistance for the Baltic States in case they were attacked was considered as inconsistent with the policy of neutrality, because it would be interpreted by Germany as adhesion to the "peace front,"' which Germany chooses to call "encirclement." The Baltic States would raise no objection if Britain, France, and Russia undertook to assist any States-not specifically the Baltic States- if they became victims of aggression and asked for help; but they regard the Soviet Government's proposed guarantees as provocatively specific and as suggesting that- the safety of the Baltic States is only a pretext of Soviet policy which seeks some advantage inconsistent with their interests. The Soviet Union professes to fear that German forces might land in Latvia or Estonia and thence attack Russia, but during the.last three years the Red Army has constructed a " Soviet Maginot Line," claim as irnpregnaible,'-all *along- the frontier, - which Was formerly not fortified at all. . The term "Baltic States" includes'.also Lithuania, the third small Republic com- posing the " Baltic Entente.". The Lithuanians are of the same -Indo-European blood as the Latvians, while the Estonians are/of the same stock as the Finns. Unlike Estonia and 'Latvia, ' Lithuania - has- a common land border with Germany. With Russia,-on the other-hand, she has none, and is therefore not included in the Soviet guarantee proposals. While Estonia and Latvia have had no quarrel with any neighbor during their 20 years' existence; Lithuania has been less fortunate, having until recently been at enmity with Poland over Vilna and with Germany over Memel. Estonia and Latvia formed their alliance early in the twenties, but these quarrels kept Lithuania from joining them until 1934, when the triple Baltic Entente was formed. The Lithuanian disputes over Vilna and Memel. were expressly excluded from the scope of this entente, which is why Lithuania stood alone when a settlement of these questions was forced on her. But there are no further " specific questions" of this nature, and the three republics are now bound by their entente to present a common front to the outside world. Lithuania was absent, however, from the recent signing of non-aggression pacts in Berlin, as her pact had already been included in the agreement with Germany for the cession of Memel concluded last March. All three republics have announced individually and collectively that they will remain neutral in case their neighbors be at war, and that they will fight only in defense of their own independence. Together they will fight the State which violates their neutrality first, but they will not in advance say whether they will accept outside help, for they consider that any such hypothetical arrangement would be inconsistent with the strict neutrality for which they stand. FORMIDABLE ARMIES Singly the Baltic States could not offer much assistance to either Germany- or Russia, but their united forces would have to be taken into serious account by any army which had its main forces heavily engaged in another direction Their combined population is about 5,500,000 (Estonia 1,131,000, Latvia 2,000,000, Lithuania 2,400,000), with standing armies of 6,000(12.000,25.000, and 23,000). Universal compulsory service is the 'system throughout the area, and the armies could rapidly be expanded to a force of 500,000 men. The armies are well trained, and many of the officers have received supplementary experience abroad; and well-organized auxiliary organizations could almost immediately convert the three republics into three nations in arms. The human material is excellent. The older reserves include many who in their teens fought side by side with their fathers and grandfathers during the war which gave them their independence 20 years ago. They have since received their own plots of land and established their homes there. If these homes be invaded or threatened their owners will fight at least as well as they and their grandfathers did when they had no land of their own to defend, with the advantage that today they are well clothed, well shod, trained, and equipped. The three Presidents  today-M. Konstantin Paits of Estonia, Dr. Karlis-Ulmanis of Latvia, and Colonel Antanas $metgna of-Lithuania-who have steered their.republics-through the recent period .of-constitutional reform are the same men:who-led their--nations into -the first stage of independence 20 years ago. 

Mis siis jutustab sellest, kuidas kolm Balti riiki on 1939. aasta suvel vaenlase rünnakute vastu hästi kindlustatud ning koos võivad välja panna vaenlase vastu 500 000 meest, mis võimaldab neil riikidel end turvaliselt tunda. Samuti juhib artikkel tähelepanu, et riikides on võimul needsamad mehed, kes neile riikidele 20 aastat varem vabaduse tõid. Ehk siis, miski ei viidanud nende riikide peatsele hukule. Vastupidi, kõik paistis väga ilus.

Nagu ma olen ka varem märkinud: sõjaliselt polnud võimalik Balti riike, või Baltic Entente'i, nagu neid kutsuti, vallutada. Ainus võimalus oli kavalus, ja seda venelased ning sakslased tegid. Kavalusega isoleeriti Balti riigid ning alistati Poola, siis toodi vene väed sisse ning korraldati riigipöörded, mis maailma avalikkusele paistsid kui seaduslikud käigud. Seejuures, NB!, kasutati ära neidsamu tegelasi, kes olid neile riikidele toonud iseseisvuse. Või õigemini, Balti riikide juhid lasid end ära kasutada. Või ära osta. Nagu mu vanaema ütles, Päts müüs Eesti riigi maha.

ERGO: Balti riikide sh Eesti suurim julgeolekurisk on juhtide lollus!!! Sa võid ajada kokku hunnikute viisi relvastust, õpetada välja sõjamehi, aga kui juhid on lollid, siis pole sest mitte midagi kasu.

Kuidas välistada juhtide lollust?! Üksikud juhid võivad olla lollid, aga rahvas pole kunagi loll. See ongi demokraatia suurim võlu: välistab lollide või lolliks läinud juhtide võimu. Kahjuks toimib asi ka vastupidi: lolliks läinud juht hakkab piirama demokraatiat. See juhtus Eestis 1930ndatel nn Vaikival ajastul ja seda on märgata ka praegu, kus järjest suurem võim koondub Eestis Reformierakonna kätte ning kus on juba asutud piirama sõnavabadust ja kiusama taga opositsiooni. Demokraatia piiramine käib tavaliselt demokraatia kaitse sildi all, nii tegutses Päts ja nii tegutseb praegune poliitiline klikk. Selle vastu head rohtu ei olegi. Demokraatia valvekoer peaks olema ajakirjandus, ent sellest võib väga lihtsalt saada sülekoer. Kui president Ilves küsis, kes valvab valvekoera järele, siis mina küsiks pigem seda, kes valvab demokraatia järele siis, kui valvekoeral on suu kinni seotud?!